INTERVIEW: Nigerians Would’ve Been Buying Petrol At N1,500 If Not For NNPC — Dr Eke Agbai

Dr Agbai Eke Agbai, a scholar and researcher, is the Vice President of the Center for Policy and Foreign Engagement, Abuja.

He spoke to THE WHISTLER team of TAYO OLU and PHILIP UKPE at the sideline of an event organised by Chief James Ume of Unubiko Foundation, to celebrate Dr Agbai’s recent completion of a second PhD from the Nasarawa State University, Keffi, where he authored a thesis on the topic: International Maritime Security and Nigeria’s Economic Coastal Areas.

He spoke on the relevance of his PhD thesis to Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. Excerpts…

Can You Tell Us Briefly How Your Thesis Is Relevant To The Oil And Gas Sector Of Nigeria?

My thesis is on international maritime security and its economic implications for Nigeria, especially as it affects oil theft and pipeline vandalization. On how it can impact, once you can address that challenge. It means Nigeria has access to more revenue. It means that Nigeria’s GDP can go up. It means that we have money for development.

How Do You Feel About Your Latest Achievement?

Well, for me, any academic exercise is one that I encourage. But in doing this thesis, I uncovered a lot. First is the extent of the oil theft. Nigeria is losing between $65m a day to $100m. According to a report in 2023, Nigeria lost close to $5.4bn. Number two was the issue of oil subsidy, one of my discoveries. All the while, I was even among those who have always blamed the NNPC until I discovered that there’s a need for education to gather information. Let me give you an example. I don’t know if you understand the methodology of how crude oil is sold.

The price is fixed internationally. So, Nigeria does not have its own price. And when you have the refined product come back, the price is also fixed. But when it lands, the landing cost is such that it will be expensive to the common man. So, the government decided to subsidise PMS, so that it would be cheaper for the common man to buy. Do you know who pays for that subsidy? I discovered it was paid by NNPC.

But it ought to have been shouldered by the three tiers of government, the federal government, the state, and the local government. But they have shifted it to an NNPC to pay. So, the revenue of NNPC, the profits of NNPC now go to pay for those subsidies. When they sell it to oil marketers, do you know what they do? They will ship it to neighboring countries to make more money, triple and quadruple.

So, when people blame the NNPC for not making money, they do not realize the profit has already been used to pay the subsidy. So, there needs to be a new arrangement. First of all, the NNPC is being accused of something that they do not know how to explain. They are shouldering the burden of this subsidy while some people are selling it, and then you and I are the ones suffering. There needs to be a new arrangement, in my opinion.

What Were The Biggest Challenges You Faced During The Thesis?

It was how to get access, and that was where Tompolo’s company, Tantita Security, came in. I am very grateful to them. They helped a lot so I could get access to the creek. I arranged for me to be flown across to see how this had happened, and it was a clandestine operation, because I needed to have empirical evidence of how this had happened, because you cannot be an expert in international security maritime issues if you do not have first-hand experience.

That’s why I have come to the conclusion we need to deploy drones to identify that. There must be modern technology, as opposed to just the use of the Nigerian military. These drones will be for pipelines and surveillance.

You Already Have A PhD. What Inspired You To Pursue A Second One?

Well, I have an interest in education. Who knows? I would probably go for the third. I see education as a continuous exercise. At any time, areas of new challenges occur, you should be able to find out answers to them. The pursuit of education is an attempt to find answers to existing questions.

As Vice-President of the Center for Policy and Foreign Engagement, What Do You Think Is The Problem With Policy Implementation In Nigeria?

Well, we have to understand that foreign policy must be dictated by core national economic interest, and foreign policy is nothing but an advancement of domestic policy. So, we need to identify those comparative areas that we can use to align with other countries in order for us to have something favorable to us. I’ll give an example. How can Nigeria deploy the type of money we use with apartheid regime and then look at how South Africa treats us?

How can Nigeria deploy the type of money that we use in liberating Liberia and we do not have Nigerian companies taking care of companies like that? America does not operate like that. America liberated all those countries and look at those countries, American companies are the ones that have access. So, it must be designed as a quid pro co, i.e. something for something. But Nigeria is not doing that. And we need to re-align our foreign policy approach.

What Is NNPC’s Role In Ensuring PMS From Dangote Refinery Is Competitive And Affordable?

If anything, NNPC is being used to make sure that the prices are not exorbitant. The federal government, in my understanding of the arrangement, is to make sure that Dangote is guided towards making sure that he does not sell it at such a price that would make it very difficult for the oil marketers to buy it and then sell it to you and I.
So, by having an arrangement and the NNPC insisting that you have to sell it to us at this price. In fact, if not for this arrangement, perhaps by today, you would have been buying at 1,500. So, it is not what people call a monopoly. No, it is not. It is a way of self-guiding and making sure that the price that will be affordable to you and I is being sold to people who have what are called the interests of the country at heart.

And that is why we, the people need to understand that this arrangement is to ensure that the price is at such that it is affordable to us. It is not price control, but making sure that the government has intervened so that Dangote does not sell it at a high price because if they allow the private marketers, they will negotiate and then they’ll sell it to us at a price that we cannot afford.

Now NNPC buys it at a price that is affordable and sold at a price that we, the people, can afford. So, it’s a very good arrangement as a matter of fact, people need to understand it. People call it monopoly but it is not because it was part of my findings.

Any Message For Your Host ?

As a matter of fact, Chief James Ume, the publisher and chairman of THE WHISTLER newspapers has taken the concept of loyalty and friendship to another height. I cannot tell you how much I admire him. I hold him in high esteem and I’m just delighted that not only do I see him as a family, but when you see a young man who’s the builder of human beings, the person whose sense of kindness has redefined relationships.

I just pray that God continues to allow younger people like him to see life from that prism and then do the best that he can to advance humanity. So, I cannot thank him enough, and I’m very proud to call him my friend and my brother.