From Boko Haram to Hezbollah: Lessons for Nigeria in the wake of Israeli attacks

As news of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah reaches our shores, it would be understandable for some Nigerians to find themselves drawing parallels to our tumultuous history with Boko Haram. The shift in leadership that often follows such strikes, typically resulting in more radicalised and violent successors, is a familiar pattern.

The Nigerian Boko Haram insurgency, led by founder Mohammed Yusuf, was a prime example of how the extrajudicial killing of a leader can backfire and escalate violence. Yusuf’s death, along with Buji Foi’s, fuelled the group’s escalation, solidifying their resolve and radicalising their ideology. The martyrdom allowed the group to rebrand itself as a force of revenge against the Nigerian state, highlighting the consequences of extrajudicial killings.

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Yusuf’s death led to the rise of Boko Haram, a group with global jihadist ambitions. Under Abubakar Shekau’s leadership, the group transformed from a localised group against corruption into a deadly insurgency. Boko Haram’s brutal tactics, including mass kidnappings and bombings, intensified violence. The extrajudicial murder of Yusuf, who united followers under a more extreme ideology, plunged Nigeria into violence that has not been resolved, despite the death of Shekau.

The point is that the saying, “Strike the shepherd, and the sheep will scatter,” holds a certain truth when it comes to leadership dynamics, especially in insurgent or militant movements. Eliminating a prominent leader can momentarily destabilise an organisation, throwing its rank-and-file members into disarray.

The Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leadership, for instance, may have seemed like a strategic move to weaken the group, leaving its fighters without clear direction and making it harder for them to coordinate attacks or mobilise effectively. In many cases, cutting off the head of a leadership structure disrupts momentum and causes internal confusion, at least in the short term.

 “The potential spike in global oil prices, once a boon for our oil-dependent economy, now poses a significant threat due to the recent removal of fuel subsidies.”

However, this approach is not always universally applicable. Some groups, especially those driven by deeply ingrained ideologies or decentralised structures, can absorb the loss of a leader without losing their cohesion. In such cases, rather than scattering, the organisation may even regroup with renewed determination, inspired by a martyrdom narrative that strengthens the resolve of remaining members.

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In fact, eliminating a leader often has a more dangerous side effect: the bloodshed becomes a rallying cry for future leaders and members. When leaders are assassinated, the narrative of victimhood and resistance intensifies, seeding the ground for even fiercer upstarts to emerge. The martyrdom of fallen leaders can galvanise the group’s supporters, drawing more recruits and fostering a more radical and revenge-driven mindset.

This phenomenon was evident in Nigeria when Boko Haram’s leadership changed hands. The group’s tactics became more brutal and indiscriminate, leading to increased civilian casualties and a protracted conflict that continues to this day. As we observe the situation with Hezbollah, there is a genuine concern that history may repeat itself, potentially destabilising an already volatile region even more.

Despite the grim outlook, there is still hope for de-escalation if external actors, including other Middle Eastern countries and China, step in to mediate the situation.

Their motivation would not be purely altruistic; the economic risks posed by rising crude oil prices provide a strong incentive for intervention. These mediators could be crucial in bringing both parties to the negotiating table, potentially averting a wider conflict. However, the success of such efforts will depend on the willingness of all involved parties to engage in dialogue and make concessions for the sake of regional stability.

For Nigeria, the ramifications of this conflict extend far beyond geopolitical concerns. The potential spike in global oil prices, once a boon for our oil-dependent economy, now poses a significant threat due to the recent removal of fuel subsidies.

Rising fuel costs will strain household budgets, exacerbate inflation, and reduce purchasing power across the country. This economic pressure comes when many Nigerians are already struggling with the cost of living, potentially leading to social unrest if not managed carefully.

Nigeria and other West African countries are vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations, leading to inflation, decreased productivity, and slow economic growth. This vulnerability underscores the need for regional cooperation and local refining capabilities to reduce dependence on imported fuel and ensure energy security.

Given these challenges, we must explore alternative pricing mechanisms for local refineries in Nigeria and across West Africa. A regional pricing system that is partially decoupled from global oil prices could help buffer our economies against external shocks.

However, implementing such a system would face significant challenges. It would require careful planning, regional cooperation, and, potentially, changes to existing trade agreements. Additionally, there is a risk that artificially low fuel prices could lead to smuggling and other forms of arbitrage.

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The Israeli attacks on Hezbollah serve as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global events and their potential impact on even far-off locations in Nigeria and West Africa. Our region’s heavy reliance on fuel imports makes us particularly vulnerable to the economic fallout of conflicts halfway across the world.

As we watch events unfold in the Middle East, our policymakers must take this opportunity to reassess our energy policies and explore regional solutions to mitigate these economic risks. By reducing our dependence on imported fuel and developing more resilient energy systems, we can better protect our economies from external shocks and work towards greater stability and prosperity for all West Africans.

Nwanze is a partner at SBM Intelligence, a Nigerian risk advisory.