Weak Chinese Data, Middle East Outlook Dampen Oil Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market fell on Friday after data showed China’s economic growth slowed and investors digested a mixed Middle East outlook.

Brent crude futures went down by $1.39 or 1.87 per cent to $73.06 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $69.22 a barrel after declining by $1.45 or 2.05 per cent.

Brent settled more than 7 per cent lower this week while WTI lost around 8 per cent, largely caused by cut global oil demand forecast for 2024 and 2025 by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In the third quarter, China, the world’s top oil importer, experienced its slowest growth since early 2023, though September consumption and industrial output beat forecasts.

The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.6 per cent in July-September, official data showed, below the 4.7 per cent pace in the second quarter.

The China central bank in late September announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the COVID-19 pandemic to support the property and stock markets.

However, the numerous steps have still left investors waiting on details of the overall size of the stimulus package and a clear plan to reignite broader growth. This hasn’t helped the outlook for the world’s largest oil importer.

Market analysts have also repeatedly highlighted the need for the  Chinese government to address longer-term structural challenges such as overcapacity, high debt levels and an ageing population.

On the geopolitics front, US President Joe Biden said on Friday there was an opportunity to deal with Israel and Iran in a way that potentially ends their conflict in the Middle East for a while.

Speaking in Germany, he said he has an understanding of how and when Israel will respond to the missile attacks by Iran on October 1.

This is something investors continue to wait for, as it could lend support to the financial markets and by extension, the oil market.

Hezbollah militant group said on Friday it was moving to a new and escalating phase as it battles Israel after one of its prominent leaders was eliminated.

In the US, crude production smashed another record last week, according to the Energy Information Administration on Thursday, as output rose by 100,000 barrels per day in the week to October 11 to 13.5 million barrels per day, from its previous peak of 13.4 million barrels per day first hit two months ago.