Kamala Harris may win US presidential election

The opinion polls in the coming presidential electionsscheduled for November 5 in the United States of America are tight between Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party. Most polls recorded gave Harris a slight edge over Trump following a ‘’bounce’’ of favourable ratings after the recent presidential debates between the two candidates, in which the Harris, by most accounts performed better.

Indeed, since her entry into the race to replace President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris has managed a steady rise in the polls to the point where she is now leading slightly. When she was drafted by the Democrats to replace Biden, challenger Donald Trump was recorded as having an unassailable five per cent gap in the poll ratings, leading many to conclude that former President Trump would go on to win the elections on November 5.

But upon her entry into the race to replace Biden, she not only closed the gap; she also, by the overall tally of the opinion polls presently, led by about 5 per cent. Many expected that in the one and a half months remaining, Harris would maintain that lead and go on to win the US presidential elections.

Harris is on the cusp of ground breaking history. In the likely event of her winning the US presidential election in November, she will become the first woman to lead the most powerful country on earth. Not only that, she will also be the first African-American and Asian-American to achieve that remarkable feat. She will add to the feat already achieved by being the first woman to be Vice President of the United States and the first African-American and Asian-American to do so, all within a decade.

The prospect of a woman, not to talk of a non-white one, becoming the president of the United States of America would have seemed unimaginable to some. But here we are on the verge of the tables turning and on the trajectory of another epochal event in American history, since Barack Obama became the first African-American president, an event that reverberated around the world.

So what are the factors propelling Kamala Harris to this history-making event, and how influential can they be in helping her to a possible win in November?

First, we must bear in mind that in America, politics and governance are determined by interest groups. These interest groups are forever pitching their case through congress, the media, and several advocacy organizations. They are at their most strident during election when they attempt to weave their narratives into policy, hoping to horse trade with the candidates in exchange for votes and influence.

As ever, the presidential elections, like others before it, is being watched closely by the interest groups. Harris is riding fortuitously on the crest of some of these factors, which are providing the much-needed heft to her possibility of winning the elections on November 5.

The first and possibly the most important of these factors is the American ‘’Deep State’’. This is the name given to the constellation of the vast and powerful American military-industrial complex, the intelligence community, and other guardians of the American state. They may not necessarily be enamoured of Kamala Harris or what she is, but they take very seriously their role as the pillars and projectors of American power and influence around the world. They have been playing this role since the beginning of the Second War and have thus guided the rise and dominance of America globally. Without necessarily intervening openly in American politics due to their sensitive position and status in the system, they do, however, maintain an eagle-eyed interest in the trends in American politics.

The American ‘’Deep State’’ may not support Donald Trump in the November elections. Trump has stated clearly that his goal is to scale down American military involvement in Ukraine and other areas. He also prefers that America cut its spending on NATO and compel other countries in the alliance to step up their contributions.

Certainly, this will not come as cheering news to the likes of huge defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Boeing, General Motors, General Dynamics, etc. Trump had also had a well-publicised run-in with several generals in the American military and intelligence establishments, which had led to a lot of animus.

It is largely a foregone conclusion that the ‘’Deep State’’ will pour money and deploy dark tactics to prevent a Trump victory on November 5. And this is likely to boost the chances of a Harris victory. Indeed, it may not be totally out of expectation that the ‘’Deep State’’ was behind the move to prevail on President Biden to step down from the race and draft in Vice President Kamala Harris, as it was looking likely that Trump would defeat him.

The second factor that favours Harris in the race is the American Foreign Policy establishment. The guys at Foggy Bottom will not forget in a hurry that during his presidency, Trump ran American foreign policy with reckless and chaotic abandon. Allies like Germany, France, and even Britain bristled at Trump’s often undiplomatic statements and interventions in their internal affairs. Trump’s Ambassador to Germany in particular behaved like an American Governor-General of Germany with his disregard of diplomatic protocols in his conduct, which led to spats between the two countries. It got to a head that former American ambassadors had to write an op-ed that was published by major American newspapers. With the hindsight of these experiences, the influential American foreign policy establishment may not relish a Trump victory. They will prefer to support Harris.

Thirdly, you can shoot down the moon, but the major influential American newspapers like the New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal, etc. will never be caught endorsing Trump. It will be against their hallowed principles of promoting decency, values, ethics, and probity, which Trump by his history of public, private, and business practices is grossly short of. Trump’s dark one-liners and unrestrained speeches and statements may make good copy for other papers, but for the mainstream papers, it makes bad optics to be seen endorsing him. And when the endorsements begin to kick in soon, about 60 percent of the mainstream American media organizations will reject him.

There are also other important American institutions like Wall Street, the American legal establishment, and others who find Trump’s history of business and legal infractions abhorrent and would not like a repeat of his presence in the White House.

Last but not least, the factor of Trump himself, a detestable, erratic, egotistic, divisive, grumpy, grouchy, and grudge-bearing figure with just about everyone, is certainly a minus for the hallowed office of the President of the United States. The majority of Americans would not want him in that office, and they will do so with their votes on election day.

If it seems likely that Harris will win the US presidential election on November 5, it will be down to not what she is but the good fortune of having an opponent who many do not like, and are willing to prevent from winning by voting for her instead.

• Illyasu Gadu is a former information attache at Nigeria Embassy in Germany, and United Kingdom