Mr President, was the Borno flood a natural disaster?

On July 16, 2018, the US intelligence community watched in shock as then-President Donald Trump contradicted mountains of painstakingly sourced evidence of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections.

That evening, during a press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, the Finnish capital, Trump was asked whether he believed his own U.S. intelligence agencies, who had definitively concluded that Russia interfered in the elections.

His response? “I don’t see any reason why it would be [Russia],” he said, while Putin, a former KGB agent, standing just feet away, denied the allegations.

It was a shocking moment: The ‘leader of the free world’ appeared to side with the leader of a foreign power accused of meddling in American democracy over the consensus of his intelligence community.

The backlash was as immediate as it was fierce. Politicians from both parties, intelligence officials and the media were stunned by what many called a betrayal.

Yet, this moment was not just about one comment. It only expressed Mr Trump’s complicated relationship with the U.S. intelligence agencies—which often saw him questioning their findings and, in some cases, publicly contradicting them.

Given the attitude with which he’d received all news of the Russian interference in the election that brought him to office, his response should not have surprised him.

Yet, it was. Because somewhere in their psyche, citizens believed that the America-first apostle would practice what he preaches by siding with his country’s intel, at least in the open.

In a tweet, Trump would later try to retract his statement the next day. He claimed he’d misspoken and meant to say, “I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t be Russia.” But the damage was done.

Though loosely, President Bola Tinubu sounded like Trump when he blamed the Borno floods on climate change and termed it a “natural disaster.” Some back story.

When the President visited Borno State last Monday to assess the damage wrought by the floods, it was like putting some action behind his “deep concern” expressed in a statement barely one week earlier.

The previous week, his deputy, Kashim Shettima, also visited Maiduguri and sank his feet in the floodwaters to get a feel for it.

After that pseudo baptism, Shettima emerged from the water with an epiphany: the people needed rice, lots of rice, to mitigate the flood.

Thanks to him, many other people and organisations have dumped tons of rice in Borno. A disaster relief fund sounded like the most sustainable solution for the President.

Tinubu urged the private sector to contribute to the fund, saying, “There must be a disaster relief fund. I will invite the private sector to team up with us and help rebuild the affected areas.”

However, the President did not stop there. Like Trump exonerating Putin, he acquitted every official whose reported negligence led to the Borno tragedy when he said, “This disaster was a natural one. It was not the making of anybody. We cannot pass the blame. We pray that the Almighty Allah will receive the souls of the departed and grant them eternal rest.”

Wow! Just wow!

To be clear, the official narrative provided by the National Emergency Management Agency was that floodwaters engulfed Maiduguri when the Alau Dam, a critical infrastructure designed to regulate water flow and provide irrigation and drinking water, overflowed after heavy downpours.

However, multiple reports have revealed a stream of negligence on the part of the Borno State Government and mismanagement of funds by officials of concerned ministries.

For instance, a HumAngle report dated September 14, 2024, revealed that despite at least N309m disbursed to rehabilitate the deteriorating Alau dam between 2018 and 2024, the infrastructure remained dented by erosion and huge cracks that eventually gave way.

The Chad Basin River Development Authority had released the funds to different companies in 13 tranches. As rehabilitation foot-dragged, the government received multiple warnings from residents but insisted that Borno State was under no flood threat.

Experts say research by the University of Maiduguri proved the sorry state of the dam, but there was no action from the government.

It is unclear if the President got a situation report before departing Abuja for Borno State last Monday. It is safe to assume he did. And if the report was holistic enough, it must have reflected some of these fault lines. If it didn’t, we would have to raise questions about what the President actually reads and watches. Or, hear me out; maybe it did, but he settled for the “natural disaster” narrative instead. Maybe!

The disaster here is not the heavy rains—Borno State gets its fair share of downpours annually—but a dam left to rot and overridden by nature. That is no natural disaster, and calling it that or blaming climate change removes the element of accountability.

Before settling on the relief fund, the President said he had “been reflecting on how to tackle this kind of disaster and the effects of climate change.”

I’d say think no further, Mr President. Dig for root causes. Begin with accountability. First, acknowledge the multiple reports of alleged negligence and mismanagement of funds meant to repair the Alau Dam.

Then, direct an independent inquiry into the matter. You will find loopholes littered all over. When you find them, as you will, deal with them decisively.

Tinubu shelves UNGA to face hunger

So, the President shelved his trip to New York for the United Nations General Assembly this year. He delegated Vice President Kashim Shettima to lead Nigeria’s delegation this time.

“President Tinubu, who returned to the country last Sunday after his trip to China and the United Kingdom, wants to focus on domestic issues and address some of the country’s challenges, especially after the recent devastating flooding,” the Presidency explained in a statement signed by Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga.

A netizen using the X handle @EmmanuelNdiokw4 said, “This is a most reasonable decision showing the President he’s not insensitive to the expectations of Nigerians at this moment in time. It would have been unfortunate if the president were to embark on another foreign tour so soon after his absence from the seat of power for three weeks.”

Having recently toured France, China and the UK, it only makes sense to remain at home and focus on domestic matters. The VP is capable of delivering Nigeria’s address at the meeting. However, Shettima must not treat this opportunity as a yearly poem where leaders only recite and go.

Being arguably the first VP to lead Nigeria’s delegation to UNGA in over 25 years, he should direct attention to the real issues Nigeria faces, including strategic matters such as Nigeria’s permanent place on the UN Security Council.

We wish him well.