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Nigerian women are having fewer children, with the fertility rate dropping to 5.01 births per woman in 2024, a decline over the past four years, according to Macrotrends data.
In 2023, the fertility rate was recorded at 5.076 births per woman, reflecting a 1.32% decline from the previous year.
The downward trend began in 2021 when the fertility rate stood at 5.212 births per woman, followed by rates of 5.144 in 2022 and 5.076 in 2023, each indicating declines of over 1% from their respective years, according to the report.
As Nigeria’s population is projected to exceed 400 million by 2050 even with declining fertility, experts suggest that together, these figures point to a steady reduction in reproductive behavior within Africa’s most populous nation, said Ojo Sikiru, a medical practitioner in Lagos.
“The decline rate may signal shifts in economic pressures, and access to family planning resources that are reshaping reproductive behavior.
“Rising living costs, particularly have led many families to opt for fewer children.”
“Many women are now aware of the benefits of spacing children and are choosing family planning options that work best for them. This level of awareness was not as widespread ten years ago,” he observed.
Additionally, data shows that Nigeria’s birth rate have continued to shift and has also fallen, now at 35.683 births per 1,000 people—a 0.95% decrease from 2023.
The data also shows that despite a gradual decline, Nigeria’s fertility rate remains almost two births higher than Kenya’s and 1.4 births higher than Ghana’s, whose fertility rates are at 3.604 and 3.214 births per woman, respectively.
“Nigeria has a unique opportunity to balance population growth with economic development by investing in family planning, healthcare, and education,” Larne Yusuf, a medical doctor in Lagos stated.
“With sustained effort, Nigeria can stabilize its fertility rate, improve living standards, and position itself for long-term growth.” agreeing that the country’s leadership must prioritize family planning and healthcare reforms.
By learning from regional neighbors like Ghana and Kenya, Nigeria may be able to chart a path toward a more balanced demographic profile that supports both development and improved quality of life for its citizens.
What You Should Know
Over the four years from 2021 to 2024, Nigeria’s fertility rate has steadily declined. Here’s a breakdown of the change:
- 2021: 5.212 births per woman
- 2022: 5.144 births per woman (decline of 1.31% from 2021)
- 2023: 5.076 births per woman (decline of 1.32% from 2022)
- 2024: 5.009 births per woman (decline of 1.32% from 2023)
Over these four years, Nigeria’s fertility rate decreased by a total of 0.203 births per woman.
Between 2021 and 2024, Nigeria’s birth rate has shown a consistent decline each year. Here’s the year-by-year breakdown:
2021: 36.855 births per 1,000 people (1.11% decline from 2020)
2022: 36.440 births per 1,000 people (1.13% decline from 2021)
2023: 36.026 births per 1,000 people (1.14% decrease from 2022)
2024: 35.683 births per 1,000 people, (0.95% decline from 2023)
Over these four years, Nigeria’s birth rate dropped by 1.172 births per 1,000 people (from 36.855 in 2021 to 35.683 in 2024), averaging around a 1% decline each year.
