The race is a d3ad beat - Pollsters say as Trump goes even at 48% with Kamala Harris in new poll

Former US President, Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with the network saying that Trump was bolstered by foreign-based Republicans coming back to the US to support him after last month’s debate as well as by favourable voter assessment of Trump’s term as president.

The new survey released three weeks before Election Day, also shows Harris’ popularity has declined compared to a month ago, after she got a big summertime boost; a massive gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters viewing abortion as a top motivating issue heading into the 2024 vote.

“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”

McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent a change from President Joe Biden and voters seeing Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.

“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.

Still, underlining the poll is uncertainty about the election (with 10% of voters saying they might change their minds and a sliver of unclaimed voters still on the fence), an all-time-high share of voters believing that this presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives, and key challenges for both Harris and Trump.

The third-party (Independent Party) vote could play a role, as Trump gets a small boost when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, to a 1-point edge.

“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he make the case that the chaos and personal behaviour that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.

“The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.

In the new poll which was conducted October 4-8, Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates.

September’s NBC News poll found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.

An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided.

In September, however, Harris held a 6-point lead on this ballot.

Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.

Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees, Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.

But assuming a more favourable turnout environment for Democrats which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of colour showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%.

All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.