Using Mathematical Modeling for Effective Infectious Disease Control in Nigeria

Infectious diseases can spread rapidly and unpredictably, catching communities off guard. However, mathematical modelling can be a powerful tool to anticipate and prepare for outbreaks, including those as devastating as the current mpox virus, by simulating virus spread, assessing intervention strategies, enabling public health officials to make informed decisions and minimise outbreak impact.

Modelling infectious diseases involve using mathematical equations and algorithms to simulate and predict the spread of diseases. These models help understand the dynamics of an outbreak, forecast future trends, and evaluate the impact of interventions. Such models were used during the 2014 Ebola outbreak, exemplifying the critical role of mathematical models in understanding the virus’s spread and assessing the effectiveness of interventions put in place. These models guided resource allocation and control measures, contributing significantly to the outbreak’s containment.

Researchers developed mathematical models to simulate the spread of Ebola virus disease, highlighting critical transmission routes such as household, community, hospital, and unsafe burial practices. The model revealed that effective hospital isolation and treatment could significantly reduce cases over time, suggesting that Ebola virus disease could be eliminated in approximately 285 days under ideal conditions. Furthermore, a detailed system of differential equations systems was developed to examine the disease’s transmission dynamics, emphasising the importance of proper burial practices and quarantine measures in controlling the outbreak.

Understanding mathematical modeling

Mathematical models have been instrumental in understanding the spread and control of infectious diseases for centuries. Pioneers like Sir Ronald Ross and the creators of the Kermack-McKendrick model led the charge in the early 1900s. Sir Ross utilised mathematical functions to study malaria transmission dynamics, developing what is now known as the ‘Ross model.’ Published in 1911, this model remains the basis for numerous models of vector-borne diseases. Ross’s work introduced key concepts like the basic reproduction number (R0), which measures the potential for disease spread within a population, laying the foundation for mathematical modelling in disease control.

Today, mathematical models are essential tools for combating infectious diseases globally. In the fight against pandemics, such as COVID-19, researchers developed and applied diverse models to simulate disease spread and inform response strategies. Deterministic models offer a broad, macro-level view of epidemic behaviour, while stochastic models incorporate the unpredictability of disease transmission. Agent-based models go even further, zooming in on social dynamics and individual behaviours that influence the spread of diseases within communities.

Image credit: Nigeria Health Watch

Mathematical Modeling in Nigeria

Mathematical models have been pivotal in studying the transmission dynamics of diseases such as malaria and COVID-19 in Nigeria. For malaria, models have incorporated factors like drug resistance, treatment regimens, and the use of mosquito nets, providing insights into the impact of interventions like seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) and insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution. These models have helped shape strategies to reduce the malaria burden.

Mathematical models developed by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) during the COVID-19 pandemic helped assess the dynamics of the virus’s spread in Nigeria. These models evaluated the effectiveness of control measures such as lockdowns, quarantine, and public sensitisation efforts, aiding in decision-making during the pandemic’s critical phases.

Despite its success, there are several challenges associated with mathematical modelling. One of the most significant is data quality. Accurate models rely on comprehensive, high-quality data, and incomplete or flawed data can lead to inaccurate predictions. In addition, creating realistic models that account for the complexities of human behaviour and disease transmission remains a challenge. Interdisciplinary collaboration between mathematicians, epidemiologists, public health experts, and policymakers is crucial to ensure models are both scientifically robust and practically applicable.

Exploring the Potentials

Integrating mathematical models into national health frameworks can significantly enhance public health decision-making. International collaborations and funding can be vital in building capacity, improving data quality, and advancing methodologies. By leveraging national and global partnerships, Nigeria can strengthen its use of mathematical models to forecast disease trajectories, optimise interventions, and mitigate the impact of future outbreaks.

Mathematical models offer powerful tools for infectious disease prevention; however, ongoing methodological advances and interdisciplinary collaboration are needed to strengthen their role in public health decision-making. To effectively integrate these models into national health frameworks, it is crucial to tailor them to Nigeria’s unique epidemiological and demographic context. This requires strong partnerships between government agencies, researchers, and healthcare professionals to ensure models are scientifically robust and usable.

International collaborations and funding are pivotal in enhancing this capability by providing technical expertise, training, and resources for data collection and analysis. By fostering partnerships with global health organisations, Nigeria can access cutting-edge methodologies, improve data quality, and address challenges such as incomplete data and model complexity. Collaboration also ensures that models are adapted to local realities while benefiting from international best practices.

By addressing these challenges and leveraging national and international support, Nigeria can fully harness mathematical modelling’s potential to improve infectious disease response and public health outcomes.

The evidence is clear — mathematical models are essential tools for informing outbreak response and disease prevention strategies. It is time for Nigerian health authorities at both national and subnational levels to integrate mathematical modelling into their disease prevention and elimination efforts. By providing insights into disease dynamics, optimising resource allocation, evaluating intervention strategies, and establishing early warning systems, modelling can play a critical role in reducing the burden of infectious diseases.

The urgency of adopting this approach cannot be overstated. With Nigeria facing persistent public health challenges, embracing mathematical modelling can engender informed decision-making, efficient resource use, and better health outcomes.

Health security is one of the pillars of the present health leadership, and at the foundation is data and digitisation of the health system to have more data-backed decision-making. Policymakers, researchers, and health professionals must strengthen the integration of these tools to ensure a healthier and more resilient Nigerian population.